As it stands now, most computer models want to take the storm generally to the north and then to the north-northeast, away from the USA east coast, by next weekend.
How close Jose passes to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Bahamas late this week will determine whether its outer bands of rain and wind impact these areas, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio.
Spaghetti charts for Jose show a complicated future for the storm.
“Jose is moving toward the north near 12 miles per hour”.
Unable to move to the north, and restricted from moving to the east by a developing upper level high pressure, Jose should have no choice but to meander for a few days in between Bermuda and the Southeast U.S.
Jose won’t lose much intensity during this loop to nowhere, as the storm will have plenty of warm water for fuel. The National Hurricane Center predicts it will be a Category 1 hurricane with 90mph winds by Saturday.
Jose’s future beyond Friday is even more convoluted. “The official forecast goes out five days due to the considerable uncertainty beyond day five”, a Monday afternoon update says.
It’s still way too early to know exactly where Jose will end up, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea for the United States to get comfortable with another hurricane making landfall.
The forecast after that is less certain, with some models suggesting the storm will loop toward the north and northeast and other models having it move west toward the Bahamas.